تحلیل پویای مسئله حوادث رانندگی در ایران: رویکرد پویایی‌شناسی سیستم‌ها

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت وحسابداری، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد، دانشگاه شریف، تهران، ایران

3 کارشناسی، دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه شریف، تهران، ایران

4 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مدیریت وحسابداری، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

5 استادیار، گروه پزشکی اجتماعی، دانشکده پزشکی، دانشگاه علوم پزشکی بوشهر، بوشهر، ایران

چکیده

عواملی چون گسترش پدیده شهرنشینی، استفاده رو‌به‌رشد از وسایل‌نقلیه و صنعتی شدن موجب افزایش تصادفات رانندگی شده‌است. مسئله تصادفات رانندگی در ایران یک معضل جدی است و ایران جزء کشورهایی است که آمار بالایی از مرگ ناشی از تصادفات رانندگی را به خود اختصاص می‌دهد. با نگاه پویا به مسئله مذکور در ایران و بررسی متغیر‌های مهمی مثل تعداد تلفات سالیانه ناشی از تصادفات می‌توان به اهمیت موضوع بیشتر پی برد. به‌طور کلی مسئله تصادفات رانندگی دارای ابعاد گوناگونی است و دارای پیچیدگی‌های خاص خود است. در این راستا و در این تحقیق با استفاده از رویکرد پویایی‌شناسی سیستم، در ابتدا پس از بیان مسئله پویا، با توجه به پیشینه و مصاحبه‌های صورت گرفته چهار دسته عامل اصلی به عنوان عوامل یا متغیر های مهم و اثر گذار شناسایی شدند. بر اساس این چهار عامل اصلی، مدل علی- معلولی استخراج و سپس این مدل به مدل انباره– جریان تبدیل شد. در ادامه اعتبار سنجی مدل بررسی و مدل در فضای نرم افزار Vensim شبیه سازی گردید. در پایان سه سیاست پیشنهادی روی مدل شبیه سازی گردید که نتایج آن نشان از بهبود قابل توجه رفتار سیستم در خصوص متغیر‌های اصلی دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Dynamic Analysis of Traffic-Injury Problem in Iran: System Dynamics approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Masood Rabieh 1
  • Mohammad Mahdi Karami 2
  • Seyed Mostafa Ziaee 3
  • Azizalah Yasoubi 4
  • Hedayat Salari 5
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management , Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
2 M.A. Student, Graduate School Of Management And Economics, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
3 B.Sc. Student, Faculty of Industrial Engineering , Sharif University of Technology,Tehran, Iran
4 M.A. Student, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
5 Assistant Professor, Department of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Bushehr University of Medical Sciences, Bushehr, Iran
چکیده [English]

Different factors such as urbanization, increasing use of vehicle, and industrialization have led to an increase in number of traffic accidents. The issue of traffic accidents in Iran is a major concern as Iran has a high rate of traffic accident and death toll. The importance of this issue becomes more obvious through a System Dynamics point of view and after examining significant factors such as the yearly death toll due to traffic accidents in Iran. Generally, the issue of traffic accidents has various dimensions with its own special complexities. Using a “System Dynamics” approach, this study first defined the dynamic problem and then four groups of major and significant factors were identified based on the literature and the conducted interviews. Based on the four main factors, the “Casual Loop Model” was developed and then transformed into a “Stock Flow Diagram”. Afterward, the proposed model was validated and simulated in the “VENISM” software. Finally, three proposed policies were simulated using the model. The results demonstrate a considerable improvement of system behavior with respect to the main variables.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Traffic Accidents Problem
  • system dynamics
  • Stock Flow Diagram
  • Simulation
  • Policy

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