Dynamic Analysis of Traffic-Injury Problem in Iran: System Dynamics approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management , Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

2 M.A. Student, Graduate School Of Management And Economics, Sharif University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

3 B.Sc. Student, Faculty of Industrial Engineering , Sharif University of Technology,Tehran, Iran

4 M.A. Student, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

5 Assistant Professor, Department of Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Bushehr University of Medical Sciences, Bushehr, Iran

Abstract

Different factors such as urbanization, increasing use of vehicle, and industrialization have led to an increase in number of traffic accidents. The issue of traffic accidents in Iran is a major concern as Iran has a high rate of traffic accident and death toll. The importance of this issue becomes more obvious through a System Dynamics point of view and after examining significant factors such as the yearly death toll due to traffic accidents in Iran. Generally, the issue of traffic accidents has various dimensions with its own special complexities. Using a “System Dynamics” approach, this study first defined the dynamic problem and then four groups of major and significant factors were identified based on the literature and the conducted interviews. Based on the four main factors, the “Casual Loop Model” was developed and then transformed into a “Stock Flow Diagram”. Afterward, the proposed model was validated and simulated in the “VENISM” software. Finally, three proposed policies were simulated using the model. The results demonstrate a considerable improvement of system behavior with respect to the main variables.

Keywords

References

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