ارائه مدل توسعه صنعتی پایدار در منطقه آزاد ارس با رویکرد پویایی شناسی سیستم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مدیریت، واحد تبریز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه مدیریت، واحد تبریز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه محیط زیست، واحد تبریز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تبریز، ایران

چکیده

بررسی و تحلیل روابط پویا میان متغیرهای اثر گذار بر توسعه صنعتی پایدار می تواند به شناخت رفتار اکوسیستم صنعتی منطقه آزاد ارس در قبال اتخاذ سیاستهای توسعه ای کمک کند. هدف از این پژوهش ارائه مدل توسعه صنعتی پایدار در منطقه آزاد ارس با استفاده از روش پویایی شناسی سیستم و ارزیابی سیاست های توسعه با استفاده از این مدل می باشد. در این پژوهش مطابق با متدولوژی استرمن تعاملات مولفه های اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی در چارچوب مدل پویایی شناسی مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. در مرحله بعد نسبت به اعتبار سنجی مدل با استفاده از داده های سال های 1387-1397 اقدام شده و سپس با توجه به رفتار متغیرهای کلیدی ، چشم انداز آتی منطقه آزاد ارس در اثر اجرای سیاستهای مختلف توسعه صنعتی شبیه سازی و ارزیابی شده است. نتایج شبیه سازی نشان می دهد که توسعه صنایع تولیدی مطابق با مفاد منشور توسعه منطقه آزاد ارس ، طی دو دهه باعث فروپاشی ظرفیت تحمل منطقه شده و اهداف توسعه پایدار محقق نخواهد شد. همچنین نتایج حاکی از آن است که رونق بخش خدمات کمترین تخریب را برای محیط زیست به همراه خواهد داشت. تدوین استراتژی های توسعه صنعتی با در نظر گرفتن ابعاد زیست محیطی و اجتماعی آن و هدایت سرمایه گذاری ها به سمت بخش خدمات می تواند به عنوان راهکارهایی برای دستیابی به اهداف توسعه پایدار منطقه آزاد ارس مورد توجه قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Modeling of Sustainable Industrial Development in Aras Free Zone: system dynamics approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • Babak Saremi rasouli 1
  • Alireza Bafandeh Zendeh 2
  • Arezoo Nejaei 3
1 PhD Student, department of management, Tabriz branch ،Islamic Azad University, Tabriz، Iran
2 Associate professor department of management, Tabriz branch ،Islamic Azad University, Tabriz، Iran
3 Assistant Professor Department of Environmental Science, Tabriz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Investigating dynamic relationships among effective variables for sustainable industrial development can help to understand the industrial ecosystem's behavioral responses to development policies. The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for sustainable development and development policy evaluation model in Aras free zone. In this paper, system dynamics modeling framework has been used to understand the interactions among social, economic, and environmental components. In the next step, the robustness of the model is examined using time series data between 2008 and 2018. Thereafter, sensitivity analysis has been conducted to evaluate the influence of the possible changes in the key drivers through simulation technique on policy efficiency in Aras economic region. The simulation results show that the development in the manufacturing industry based on the advice from the "Development in Aras economic zone" Scheme has led to the situation where the carrying capacity has been failed, hence the sustainability goals are unattainable. the results show that the service section has the least destructionto the environment. Developing industrial development strategies by considering its environmental and social dimensions and directing investments to the service sector can be considered as solutions to achieve the goals of sustainable development of the Aras Free Zone.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sustainable Industrial Development
  • Industrialization Policy
  • Meta-synthesis Approach
  • system dynamics
  • Aras Free Zone
[1] Aras Free Zone Organization, (2010). "Charter of Aras Free Trade Zone development”.
[2] Water resources statistics of  East Azerbaijan province, (2019). "Regional water company of East Azerbaijan province".
[3] Brundtland, Gro Harlem and Mansour Khalid, (1987). "Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development, United Nations Document: A/42/427.
[4] United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO( (2014). "Annual Report", p.20. ISSN 1020-7651.  Distribution: GENERAL IDB.43/2-PBC.31/2
[5] Frosch ,R.A. and N. E. Gallopoulos, (1989). "Strategies for manufacturing" ,Scientific American, 261(September): 144–152.
[6] Ayres, R. U , (1989). "Industrial metabolism. In Technology and the environment", edited by J. H. Ausubel and H. E. Sladovich. Washington: National Academy Press.
[7] Chertow, M. R, (2000). "Industrial symbiosis: Literature and taxonomy", Annual Review of Energy and the Environment, 25: 313–337.
[8] Ehrenfeld, J. R. and N. Gertler, (1997). "The evolution of interdependence at Kalundborg" Journal of Industrial Ecology , 1:67–80
[9] McIntyre, R.; Thornton, J. (1978). "On the environmental efficiency of economic systems". Soviet Studies. 30 (2): 173–192.
[10] Rees E.,W. (1992). Ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity:whaturban economics leaves out. Environment and UrbanizationVolume: 4 issue: 2, page 121.
[11] Radzicki, M & Taylor, R, (2008). "Origin Of System Dynamics :Jay W. Forrester And the History of System Dynamics", In US Department of Energy,s Introduction to System Dynamics, Retrieved  23 Octobr 2008.
[12] Zahedi S, Najafi G, (2006). "Sustainable Development ,A New Conceptual Framework", IQBQ.10(4):43-76 First Edition, Tehran, Organization for the Study and Compilation of Humanities Books of Universities.
[13] Cowell, S. J., & Parkinson, S, (2003). "Localisation of UK food production: an analysis using land area and energy as indicators. Agriculture", Ecosystems & Environment, 94(2): 221-236.
[14] Rayat Pisha, Saeed, Ahmadi Kahnali, Reza, Abbasnejad, Tayebeh, (2016). "Applying a hybrid qualitative approach to provide a comprehensive model for supply chain sustainability assessment", Modern Research in Decision Making, 1 (1), 139-166
[15] XuJ., Kang J., ShaoL., Zhao T, (2015). "System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China" , Journal of Environmental Management,161
[16] Rajabi.A, Moosavi.M, (2013). "Appraisal and calculate productivity of the industrial groups with applying of system dynamics approach in 1404 horizon", Management Research in Iran,Volume 17, Number 3, Pages 111
[17] ZhaoY., Shang J., ChenC., Wu H, (2008). "Simulation and evaluation on the eco industrial system of Changchun economic and technological development zone", China. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment , Dordrecht 139 , 339-49.
[18] Karami.H, Mohamadi.A, Ranaee.H, Abbasi.A, (2017). "Investigating Effects of SMEs Formation on Investment Growth", Management Research in Iran, Volume 21, Number 2, Pages 89-112
[19]Salehi, Mojtaba, Atefi, Fereshteh, Ahmadian, Shabnam, (2020). "Capacity planning for production and reproduction in a closed loop supply chain according to customer behavior using the system dynamics approach", Modern Research in Decision Making, 5 (4), 20-38.
[20] Sterman, John D , (2000). " Business dynamics: systems thinking and modeling for a complex world". McGraw Hill, ISBN 0-70-231135-5.
[21] Cobb,C.W., Douglas, P. H, (1928). "A Theory of Production", American Economic Review , 18: 139–165. JSTOR 1811556. Retrieved 26 2016.
[22] Hui, C, (2006). "Carrying Capacity, Population Equilibrium, and Environment’s Maximal Load". Ecological Modelling, 192, 317-320.
[23] Gorban, Alexander & Pokidysheva, Lyudmila & Smirnova, Elena & Tyukina, Tatiana, (2010). "Law of the Minimum Paradoxes", Bulletin of mathematical biology , 73. 2013-44.
[24] ZahediAmiri, G. H. & N. Zarghami, (2015). "Carbon sequestration in earthly ecosystems,  Publication of Tehran University, Tehran, 524 p.
[25] Sen, Amartya, (1973). "On Economic Inequality (expanded ed.). Oxford New York: Clarendon Press Oxford UniversityPress.
[26] Shahiki Tash, M, (2013). "Cardinal Welfare Assessment and Evaluation of the Effect of Macro Variables on Welfare Changes in Iran Based on Fuzzy Regression", Research and Economic Policies Spring , No. 65, page(s):  165 to 182.
[27] Conceicao, Pedro NMI2; Ferreira, Pedro M,  (2020). "The Young Person's Guide to the Theil Index: Suggesting Intuitive Interpretations and Exploring Analytical Applications",SSRN Electronic Journal, ISSN 1556-5068.