Proposing a Model for Forecasting Port Container Terminal Performance; System Dynamics Approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D Candidate, Department of Industrial Management, Management and Accounting Faculty, Shahid Beheshti University, G. C., Tehran, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Management and Accounting Faculty, Shahid Beheshti University, G. C., Tehran, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management, Management and Accounting Faculty, Shahid Beheshti University, G. C., Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Due to the causal nature of maritime transport sector and interaction of variables in this section as well as the complexities, Systemd ynamics (SD) approach is used to measure and forecast port performance. This paper concerns the performance in terms of the number of container loading and unloading of container terminal, ship turnaround time in port and berth occupied percentage. Historical data of Shahid Rajae port from 1384 to 1394 is used to valid proposed model. The results of simulation show that by increasing one more gantry crane, the container throughput increase 12/5% and the average service time decrease about 30%. By investing and developing one berth more, the throughput increase 4% and average service time decrease about 37%. Whereas by increasing one more gantry crane and berth, the throughput increase 37% and average service time decrease about 45%. The proposed model can help port managers to see the effects of their decisions on future port performance and design policies that lead to desired consequences.

Keywords

References

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