مدل مکان‌یابی-تخصیص تسهیلات بحران با در نظر گرفتن قابلیت اطمینان تحت شرایط عدم قطعیت و تقاضای پویا (مطالعه موردی: بحران زلزله در شهر تهران)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد، دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

2 دانشیار، گروه فناوری صنعتی، دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

3 استادیار، گروه مهندسی سیستم، دانشکده مهندسی صنایع، دانشگاه علم و صنعت ایران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

در بلایای طبیعی، نیاز مبرم مصدومان به کالاهای ضروری اغلب خود منجر به تشدید بحران می­شود؛ بنابراین مکان‌یابی انبارهای توزیع کالا و تأسیس این انبارها در مناطقی که امدادرسانی را تسریع بخشد، از اهمیت خاصی برخوردار است. در این مقاله، یک مدل مکان‌یابی-تخصیص تسهیلات بحران با هدف کاهش هزینه­ها ارائه شده است؛ به‌طوری‌که این مدل تحت شرایط عدم قطعیت با در نظر گرفتن تقاضای پویا تا 72 ساعت پس از آغاز بحران، انبارهای تأسیس‌شده را به نقاط آسیب طبق سناریوهای مختلف تخصیص می­دهد. همچنین احتمال خرابی تسهیلات و مسیرها، به­منظور افزایش قابلیت اطمینان، در مدل در نظر گرفته‌ شده و انبارها در دو نوع مطمئن و نامطمئن و همچنین انبارهایی پشتیبان برای احداث فرض شده­اند. مدل پیشنهادی بر روی مطالعه موردی زلزله در شهر تهران پیاده­سازی شده است. سپس مسئله برای تعداد مختلف تسهیلات اجرا شده و تحلیل حساسیت و اعتبارسنجی صورت گرفته است. همچنین با بهره­گیری از روش آرما تقاضای امداد برای سال 1398 پیش­بینی و نتایج به‌دست‌آمده گزارش شده است. نتایج نشان می­دهد مکان‌یابی انبارهای توزیع امداد و تخصیص مناطق براساس مدل پیشنهادی می­تواند باعث بهبود امدادرسانی شده و به مدیران جهت مقابله با بحران کمک نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

A Disaster Facilities Location-Allocation Model Considering Reliability under Uncertainty and Dynamic Demand (Case Study: Earthquake Disaster in Tehran)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mona Asadi 1
  • Mohammad Ali Shafia 2
  • Saeed Yaghoubi 3
1 Master of Science, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Needs of affected people for relief commodities in the natural disasters often make crisis worse. Therefore location of distribution of depots and setup these depots wherever accelerate fast distribution have a special importance. In this paper a location-allocation model of distribution facilities with the objective of minimizing the costs has been proposed. So that this model under uncertainty allocates the established depots to affected areas under different scenarios considering dynamic demand in which over the first 72 hours after the beginning of the crisis. Also two kinds of reliable and unreliable depots and backup depots with the possibility of damage to facilities and routs has been considered to increase the reliability. The proposed model has been applied on a case study the earthquake in Tehran city. Then we have solved the problem for a different number of facilities and performed a sensitivity analysis and validation process. Also the demand for relief has been forecasted for the year 1398 with the ARMA method and the results have been reported. Computational results show that location of distribution depots and allocation of the areas according to the proposed modelcan improve the aid and help managers to manage the crisis.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Reliability
  • Earthquake of Tehran
  • Location-Allocation
  • ARMA model
  • Dynamic demand

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