شناسایی و ارزیابی کمی ریسک خطوط لوله گاز شهری و تعیین مناطق حساس با ارائه مدلی تلفیقی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 مربی، گروه مدیرت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت، اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه پیام نور، اصفهان، ایران

2 استاد، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

امروزه خطوط لوله گاز یکی از کانون‎های حادثه خیز است، به طوری‎که حوادث آن می‎تواند پیامدهای گوناگونی در ابعاد مختلف انسانی، اجتماعی، مالی، سیاسی و یا زیست‌محیطی داشته باشد. به همین جهت مدیریت و ارزیابی ریسک یکی از مهم‎ترین فعالیت‎ها برای شبکه‎های خطوط لوله گاز طبیعی مخصوصاً در شهرها می‌باشد. این پژوهش یک برنامه جامع ارزیابی کمّی ریسک برای خطوط لوله‎ و شبکه توزیع گاز که از مناطق حساس و پرجمعیت می‎گذرند، پیشنهاد می‌‎کند. بدین منظور پس از بخش‌بندی شبکه خطوط منطقه مورد نظر با شاخص‌های مناسب، سناریوهای حوادث مختلف ممکن در رابطه با نشت گاز توسط تکنیک‎های FMEA وETA شناسایی می‎گردند و احتمالات و پیامدهای نهایی این سناریوها در ابعاد مختلف انسانی، مالی و اجتماعی به‎دست آورده می‎شوند، که بدین منظور نرم‌افزار شبیه‎ساز حوادث مرتبط با نشت مواد سمّی جهت به‌دست آوردن پیامدهای انسانی استفاده شده است. سپس با استفاده از مفاهیم تئوری مطلوبیت، توابع مطلوبیت پیامدها استخراج شده و به‎وسیله آن‏ها و احتمالات محاسبه شده، ریسک بخش‎ها در رابطه با هر سناریو با واحد یکسان به‎دست می‎آید و بخش‎های مختلف منطقه مورد نظر از لحاظ ریسک رتبه‎بندی می‎گردند. مراحل مدل ارائه شده برای شبکه توزیع گاز شهر اصفهان، تشریح شده و مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است، که نتایج بیانگر کارایی مدل مذکور می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Quantitative risk assessment of urban gas pipelines and identify sensitive areas by providing comprehensive and integrated model

نویسندگان [English]

  • mohammadtaghi ghandehari 1
  • Mansour momeni 2
  • mohammadreza mehregan 2
1 Instructor, Faculty of Management and Economics and Accounting, Payame Noor University, Isfahan, Iran.
2 professor, Faculty of Management, Tehran university, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The gas pipeline is a central focus of accident-prone, so that events can be various outcomes in different aspects of human, social, financial, political or environmental is. That is why one of the most important activities for the management and risk assessment networks of natural gas pipelines, especially in towns. This is a comprehensive program of quantitative risk assessment for pipelines and gas distribution networks from sensitive areas and densely populated pass, suggests. To this end, the area of network segmentation with appropriate indicators, different possible scenarios of events in relation to gas leaks can be detected by techniques FMEA and ETA and The ultimate consequences of these scenarios and possibilities and different aspects of human, financial and social are earned, for that purpose simulator software-related incidents leakage of toxic substances have been used to obtain human consequences. Using utility theory and safety managers and experts, extracted consequences utility functions and probabilities calculated by the risk categories in relation to each scenario is obtained with the same unit. And thus different parts of the region to be ranked in terms of risk. The model presented as a case study with data collected plenty of Isfahan gas pipeline network and its events, have been described.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Quantitative risk assessment
  • network gas pipelines
  • Event Tree Analysis
  • utility theory
  • incidents of gas leak

 

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