Modern Research in Decision Making

Investigating financial information asymmetry in pharmaceutical companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange and prediction their financial crisis using Artificial Neural Network

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

fatemeh heirani 1
najmeh neshat 2
Somayeh Mousavi 3

1 Master's student, Department of Industrial Engineering - Financial Systems, Meybod University, Meybod, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Meybod University, Yazd, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Meybod, Meybod, Iran

Abstract
According to previous research, financial ratios have a high ability to predict the financial crisis of companies, but recently, research based on market variables and economic variables have attracted the attention of financial researchers. This research was first formed by examining the theory of asymmetry of financial information and since the stakeholders usually do not know the real financial conditions of the company before the occurrence of financial problems, it has predicted the financial crisis. The aim of this research is to be able to provide a more accurate model by using accounting variables, macroeconomic and market variables, so that stakeholders can make more confident decisions by relying on the predictive power of these models. In this research, using the data of 30 pharmaceutical companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period of 1397 to 1400, Based on the research results, the neural network model with selected variables of debt ratio, asset return, stock price, company size, consumer price index and GDP growth has the ability to predict the financial crisis. To predict the financial crisis of companies, it is possible to use the combination of accounting variables, macroeconomics and market variables, and also all the selected variables in the research affect the financial crisis.

Keywords

financial crisis
artificial neural network
financial information asymmetry
pharmaceutical companies
Tehran Stock Exchange
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