Modern Research in Decision Making

Abstract In this study, a hybrid method based on Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) technique, analytical network process (ANP), and factor analysis is developed to prioritize economic, social, and environmental indicators of sustainable development in free. For this purpose, first, the indicators are classified into two internal and external ones and their latent factors are identified and named using the factor analysis method. Then, the DEMATEL technique is employed for identifying the internal relationship among the indicators as well as determining the intensity of their influential indicators and influence. Moreover, the causal diagrams, the internal relationships of internal and external indicators, and the cause or effect of the indicators are explained by the DEMATEL technique. Finally, the relative importance of the indicators is obtained based on the ANP method, and by calculating the weighted and limit super matrixes, the ranking of sustainable development indicators in both internal and external parts is obtained. The results obtained from 44 internal and 24 external indicators show that "welfare and services" and "culture making" factors are the most important internal and external ones, respectively, while "providing conditions for investment and support for investment" and "prevention of marine pollution by ships" indicators are the most important internal and external ones in the sustainable development of free zones.

Abstract In the present era, technology has changed tremendously, yet the successful adaption of technology is quite challenging. Due to the rapid emergence of new communication and information technology tools and increased rates of investments in telecommunication and expertise, society's dependency on these services is apparent. With regards to innovation in the ICT industry and the complexity of competition among stakeholders, it is demanding to promote an efficient and appropriate "regulatory" governing organization system in the ICT that provides constant access to the services. While few researchers have addressed the issue, the main problem still remains intractable. This study provides a comprehensive ICT regulatory sustainable business model for structuring an organization's governmental regulations using Peter Checkland's SSM approach in the real world. It was conducted using a problem-solving approach, investigating many scientific articles and related books, conducting inclusive and semi-structured interviews with experts, followed by extraction of the relevant parameters of the regulator model. Later, through analysis of performance indicators, the situation was assessed. After interviewing the experts and participants in this study, the regulatory model's key factors and components were analyzed and determined.
Based on findings, this research was able to propose a proper model for regulating the critical beneficiaries. Moreover, this study presented a novel and efficient approach for developing a sustainable regulatory business model in the regulatory communication system. In the execution stage, the model's strengths and weaknesses were verified and modified to achieve an efficient improved resilient model that could support the main stakeholders in this field.

Abstract Due to the complexity of the processes, analyzing the performance of the systems and examining the change in the scale of operations to improve productivity is a significant aspect. Therefore, in this research, a two-stage directional network data envelopment analysis approach is proposed to estimate the overall efficiency and the performance of each stage of two-stage processes, while undesirable outputs are produced in addition to desirable outputs. The proposed technology is based on the properties of the weak disposability of undesirable outputs and variable returns to scale. In addition, after presenting the response function, methods are proposed to calculate the right and left scale elasticities of overall efficient two-stage processes. In order to investigate the validity of the proposed method, a data set from 78 branches of the Iranian bank is used and their efficiency and scale elasticity are examined. The results show that the introduced method is useful and widely applicable to analyze the performance and scale of two-stage network systems in the presence of undesirable outputs.

Abstract The aim of this research is to deal with uncertainty in order to obtain the optimal bidding strategy for power generation companies to determine the price and power selling in day-ahead electricity market to maximize profit. This strategy includes the electricity price and the amount of electric power that should be offered to electricity market. The proposed model has two parts. The first part suggests a special method for obtaining the bid prices and in the second part by modeling a self-scheduling problem, different values of power are proposed for each bidding price to the electricity market. A mathematical modeling approach is applied in this research by using a mixed-integer non-linear programming model which is implemented in Lingo software in a case study of thermal generation unit to investigate the efficiency of the proposed model. The proposed model, empowers the decision makers to make robust decisions by applying fuzzy methods against uncertainty of electricity market prices to achieve the optimal solution which also has the capability to adjust the robustness level. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is applied to validate and evaluate the performance of the proposed model under different uncertainty situation which indicates the robustness of model. Also, the resistance of the model in high variations of uncertain parameter is illustrated.

Abstract The issue of research is modeling the stock portfolio in capital market considering the importance for investors to participate in liquidity transfers for industrial development in the country. In order to select high-returned stocks and aiming for investors to have higher returns than risk-free interest rates, there should be indicators for measuring the investment risk and minimizing it in order to achieve an optimal solution by balancing the investor’s risk and minimum expected return should be considered. In the implementation of this research, we use of coherence risk measures such as conditional value at risk and value at risk taking into account the covariance of the price of stocks to minimize the risk in each stock and the risk between stocks. Implementing the model of this research, we two definite and fuzzy approaches and using a Stochastic Chance Constraint Programming technique to definite the probabilistic constraint that states the relationship between the two risk indicators mentioned, as well as the Goal Programming solution method approach to solve the bi-objective model has been done. Models made in lingo software. The results suggest the selection of stocks that have a lower price modification than other stocks, and their price changes are minimized. For future researches in this subject, it is suggested that approximate methods include heuristics and meta-heuristics methods to optimization and measuring the entropic value at risk indicator to be used.

Abstract Considering the important role of pension funds in creating economic, political, cultural security, etc., paying attention to their financial behavior has a particular importance. Estimating the number and cost of long-term obligations of pensioners of the social security organization and how it is financially sustainable by changing the pension payment scheme of the Taieen taklif law to formal definite participation is one of the objectives of this research. In this research, in accordance with Sterman's methodology, the interactions of the relevant components in the framework of systems dynamics were investigated, and the model was validated using the data of the above organization in 2016-2021. Based on the findings of this research, assuming the continuation of the existing conditions, the number of retirees and their survivors and, accordingly, the future costs of the organization will increase significantly. Also, by changing the pension payment plan in the implementation of the above law to the formal definite participation plan, savings amounted to 1982 thousand billion rials will be created for the organization in the 35 years studied (based on the minimum wage in 1400). According to the results, the new plan is more successful than the current plan in ensuring financial stability and intergenerational justice, but considering the country's economic conditions (annual inflation and low employment rate), it is not recommended for other types of retirement.

Abstract Implementing supply chain management using the Internet of Things based on blockchain is one of the newest concerns of organizations. This article examines the role of Blockchain technology in sustainable supply chain management through a systematic review of articles published in reputable journals. This review includes articles published in 2017 on this topic. For this purpose, the articles published in prestigious journals and scientific conferences from 2017 to 2021 were reviewed and after selecting the articles, 40 articles were identified and classified and then using the systematic method of Strauss-Corbin, the data Grounded Theory by Max QD quality software. First, the three stages of open, central and selective coding were performed on the studies and 260 codes and 12 main categories were extracted from these articles, then the categories were formed in a paradigm model including causal conditions, contextual conditions, pivotal phenomena, intervening conditions. We have categorized strategies and consequences and drawn a paradigm model.

Abstract Project scheduling with certain data has a long history of research. Meanwhile, the use of uncertain parameters is limited to PERT technique and some innovative algorithms for calculating project completion time, which are not capable of considering all types of uncertainties. In this research, we developed some mathematical models to calculate the critical path and the activities’ float under normal conditions and time-cost trade-off.; In addition to validity check of the models, we developed an algorithm to generate extreme scenarios based on the interval values of the input parameters. The developed algorithm is able to generate the optimal interval for the values of the decision variables in the project schedule. Solving the scheduling problem of a real construction project involving more than 80 activities showed that if the input parameters of the problem were interval numbers, the values of the output decision variables of the models would often be interval numbers with a less degree of uncertainty. The spread of uncertainty and risks in the project is often linear. This means that with an optimal plan for the project schedule, most of the estimated errors and risks in the project would cause predictable behavior in uncertain decision variables especially, activities’ float.