Modeling the market growth of medicinal plants: using a system dynamics approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Assistant Professor, Systems Innovation, Decision Sciences and Complex Systems department, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Management, Imam Sadiq University, Tehran, Iran

2 PhD student in Operations Research, Department of Operations Management and Decision Sciences, Faculty of Industrial Management and Technology, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

3 Master's student in Islamic Studies and Business Administration, Department of Business, Faculty of Islamic Studies and Management, Imam Sadeq University (AS), Tehran, Iran

Abstract
Iran's heavy dependence on oil exports requires more attention to the development of non-oil exports, especially in the agricultural sector and the medicinal plant industry. This article examines and models the market growth of medicinal plants in Iran using a system dynamics approach from a holistic perspective. The main objective of the research is to identify the key dynamics in the medicinal plant market and provide solutions to improve this market. System dynamics allows the analysis of interactions between key factors and the market growth of medicinal plants. Research data were obtained from library sources and interviews with 11 experts, including industrialists, academics, and researchers. The dynamic model of the problem was developed, formulated, validated, and simulated in Vensim software to examine and compare different scenarios based on dynamic hypotheses. In this regard, the results of implementing the four proposed scenarios in the model were also analyzed. The results indicate that by implementing policies such as: 1) raising awareness among doctors, 2) increasing the skills and knowledge of farmers and improving the performance of Iranian merchants, 3) increasing primary advertising and establishing general and specialized stores, and 4) improving the quality and diversity of products and packaging, it will be possible to grow and sustainably develop the medicinal plant market in Iran.

Keywords


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