Modern Research in Decision Making

Abstract When decisions are made in uncertainty, robust analysis is a reliable method to evaluate the consequences of an initial decision during time. In this method sequential decisions would be implemented during a period of time and assessed. To establish robust analysis, we need to develop future scenarios and extract initial commitments which are more robust. Although it's abilities, robust analysis is a simple approach for gathering expert opinions and loses lots of information. The proposed model in this article, combines fuzzy screening phases with robust planning. The model here is then tested in a case study. In workshops six experts in Shiraz ED Co. cooperated to extract future scenarios, system configurations and needed commitments. Eventually by structuring the problem and evaluating this based on selected criteria, the desired configurations were specified. These configurations made the strategic solutions for logistics network for long term. The results show the combination of fuzzy screening and robust analysis can be used efficiently as a strategic planning framework for ambiguity and unstructured problems.

Abstract The diversity of maintenance strategies, diversity of organizational nature and diversity of criteria for strategy selection, have made the selection of maintenance strategies as a complicated problem. In this research, the strategies have been collected from the literature. Then using Yung-Lan method that is based on combination of DEMATEL-ANP, and combine it with COPRAS, the strategies were ranked. There are some savings in data collection and calculations in Yung-Lan method, which are described in the text. This study is descriptive in nature, In terms of data is quantitative, In terms of results is applicative and in terms of field is MADM problem for selection of maintenance strategy. In this research, the experts consist of 10 experts of company employees and the academic community familiar with the problems of industry and the scientific basis, were selected using targeted sampling. Data collected by questionnaire. The results showed that the predictive strategy is suitable for automotive parts industry.

Abstract The main purpose of this study is assessment of management performance of branches of the Bank Melli of Iran (BMI) using a three-stage Data Envelope Analysis (DEA). This study examined the effects of environmental variables on the performance of the bank branches. In this study, the performance of 93 branches were studied during 1390 and 1391 by input-based approach and assuming variable returns to scale. To estimate the effective performance three inputs: deposits, loans and facilities granted and one output to check the profit and loss was used. Then branches productivity was calculated using the Malm Quist productivity Index. The data collected through the annual reports of banks and were analyzed by using Lingo and Eviwes. Results After adjustment for environmental factors and statistical disorders and comparing with performance obtained before adjusting inputs show that environmental variables have a significant influence on effectiveness of the bank branches. Results show that after adjusting inputs, performance of units increased from 29 units to 33 units in 1390 and from 26 units to 52 units in 1391. According to the research results, we can conclude that in many cases lack of managers' effectiveness, is partly because of influence of environmental and uncontrollable factors effecting on their performance and performance of the branches should not be fully linked to their individual merit.

Abstract One of the challenges that any organizations will encounter is vacancy specially for strategic jobs, taking this fact into consideration that organizations need to have an appropriate plan to deal with such problems. The solution can be sought in implementation of the succession planning. The purpose of this article is to present a framework to assess Gas companies preparation in different provinces (Tehran, Qom, Hamadan and Mazandaran) in terms of succession planning. In this article, after review of research literature, cognitive mapping for effective criteria on succession planning and gray ANP for ranking and measuring options have been used and DEMATEL method has been applied to determine relationship between criteria and sub criteria. In order to analyze data, excel software and super decisions software has been used. the results of this research indicate that Tehran Gas Company is ranked first and Qom, Hamadan and Mazandaran are next in the rankings respectively.

Abstract In today's world, change is the only constant. If the change wasn’t necessary, the organization remains still in the initial stages of its life. The organization without change and reform remains in its basic framework. Rigidity and stagnation in the organization is called organizational inertia. This study was conducted with aims to identify and prioritize the factors causing organizational inertia. The research methodology is the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods data were analyzed in two phases. First using qualitative data obtained from exploratory studies the causes of organizational inertia have been identified. Then by extracting their factors through research survey data were evaluated. The results are including two parts. First a series of organizational inertia causes were identified and second the importance and priority of these factors were determined.
 

Abstract Location selection is one of the most important activities in establishment of bank branches. Choosing a suitable location have a direct impact on the performance of banks and also facilitating the achievement of other objectives. There are a lot of influential factors on the location selection which are complicated and therefore the traditional methods cannot be used. So we need to have a suitable model that whereby we can find the proper location for bank branches. The purpose of this research is identifying the important criteria in locating bank branches and selection of appropriate location for established new branches of Sepah bank. This Study is an applied research. The method used to analyze is Rough Set Theory and Multi Choice Goal programming. Initially, important criteria was determined using literature and experts opinion , Then Criteria priority were achieved using RST , Then, the candidate locations information were collected and A fuzzy membership function was created and A Multi choice goal programming model was developed using the membership functions output and criteria priority. The goal programming model was solved by lingo software and determined the best place to establish new branches. The combination of rough set theory and Multi Choice goal programming for the first time has been used in this research.
 

Abstract Nowadays, advertisement as an important factor plays a significant role in enhancing volume in each industry. By increasingly developing technology in communication, the necessity of advertisement in wide ranges and the ability to access majority of people in societies this factor is getting more essential. The internet is considered as one of the most salient tools for advertisement. In other word, the internet is gradually leaving no room for traditional media so that most advertisement managers found out no use in traditional advertisement for introducing goods anymore. True endeavor for attracting audiences is considered one of the big challenges for internet advertisement. Therefore, the objective of this study is identification and prioritization of effective factors on online advertising in Iran's market by use of fuzzy MADM techniques in clothing industry. Based on the findings of this study, factors such as people's daily use of internet, internet speed, and the use of persuasive and motivating words in advertisements have specified the highest efficient priority on its audiences. Accordingly, it is suggested that commercial and manufacturing companies attract more attention from their addressees through increasingly persuading people in their target society. They can also improve the speed and use of internet by encouraging cooperation among governmental organizations, and pay more attention to the kind and content of advertisement messages in order to make them effectively attractive and successful

Abstract In this paper, we consider an agile supply chain network design problem with multiple level and multiple periods under a situation where the customer demands rate is assumed to be depend on customer price. This network includes three-level supply chain with multi-manufacturer, multi-distribution and multi-retailer. All these actors are taken into account in order to generalize the network structure that can however be simpler in principle. Integrated decisions making in this problem include selection of partners in each echelon, demand management, pricing, production, inventory, and distribution planning. Considered Integrated Pricing-Production Decisions problem in this paper is multi-product at different quality levels. We present a model for the management of the chain addressing supply planning and allowing the improvement of the manufacturing system agility in terms of ability in reconfiguration to meet demand. A mixed integer programming (MIP) model formulates the overall decisions required to maximize profit. A numerical problem illustrates the applicability of the models.