بررسی تأثیر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر بقای شرکت‌های تازه وارد با استفاده از تابع هازارد

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری سیاستگذاری علم و فناوری، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

2 استاد، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

3 استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران، بابلسر، ایران

چکیده

ورود موفق به بازار و رقابت با عدم اطمینان بالایی همراه است و محدودیت‌های مختلفی دارد. از این رو تعداد زیادی از شرکت‌ها به‌خصوص شرکت‌های جدید پس از ورود، بازار را زود ترک می‌کنند، بنابراین در بعضی از صنایع یا مناطق تنها اقلیت تازه وارد بقا پیدا می‌کنند تا زمانی که دانش ما درباره فرایندهای رشد شرکت‌های جدید بهبود نیابد موفقیت و شکست آنها نیز مسئله مبهمی خواهد بود. هدف از تحقیق حاضر بررسی تأثیر متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر بقای شرکت‌های تازه وارد در صنایع استان مازندران و در فاصله سال‌های 1364-1394 است. برای جمع‌آوری داده‌ها و اطلاعات از پایگاه داده وزارت صنایع و معادن استان مازندران و بانک مرکزی جمهوری اسلامی ایران و جهت مطالعه بقا از رویکرد تجزیه و تحلیل تاریخی - رویدادی استفاده شده است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها از مدل برآورد‌کننده حد محصول (کاپلان – مایر) و رویکرد جدول عمر و برای آزمون فرضیه‌ها مدل نیمه پارامتریک رگرسیون Cox استفاده شده است. در نتیجه این تحقیق، رابطه معناداری میان نرخ تورم و نرخ بهره با بقای شرکت تأیید شد. همچنین یافته‌های ما وجود رابطه بین نرخ تورم و بقا را اثبات نمود. در انتها مقایسه‌ای بین توابع بقای شرکت‌های موجود بر‌اساس نرخ بیکاری انجام پذیرفت.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Envestigating the Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Survival of Manufacturing Companies using a Hazard Function

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Ghaedi 1
  • Mehrdad Madhoshi 2
  • Saeed Rasekhi 3
1 PhD student of policy of science & thechnology, Mazandaran University,Babolsar, Iran
2 Professor of industrial management Department, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.
3 Professor of Economic Department, University of Mazandaran,Babolsar, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Successful entry and competition in the market is accompanied with great sense of unreliability and it contains several limitations. Hence, a great number of firms, especially new firms, will leave the market since after entering. So, only new minority will be survived in some industries or regions. The success and failure of newcomer firms will remain ambiguous, so our knowledge should be improved about growth process of new firms. The aim of present research is to study influences of macroeconomic variables on new firm’s survival time in industries of Mazandaran province during 1364- 1394. Data and information have been collected from mining industries office of Mazandaran province and Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and for survival analysis Event-History data analysis was used. For data analysis product limit estimator model (Caplan-Maier) and life table approach was used and for hypothesizes test, the Cox regression semi parametric model has been used. Result based on the, a meaningful direct relation between inflation rate and survival time has been confirmed and we find a meaningful and reverse relation between interest rate to survive. Also our finding shows that there is a meaningful and direct relation between inflation and survival. Finally a comparison between companies survival function based on unemployment rate has been carried out.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "Macroeconomic variables"
  • "New firms"
  • "Surviv analysis"
  • "hazard function"
  • "Semi parametric model"

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