تحلیل مقایسه ای پایداری مالی طرحهای DB-PAYG و NDCدر بازنشستگیهای تعیین تکلیف سازمان تأمین اجتماعی با رویکرد پویایی شناسی سیستمها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری ، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

2 استادیار، گروه مدیریت صنعتی، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

3 استادیار، گروه اقتصاد و حسابداری، واحد تهران جنوب، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران ، ایران.

چکیده

با توجه به نقش مهم صندوق‌های بازنشستگی بر ایجاد امنیت اقتصادی، سیاسی، فرهنگی و ...، توجه به رفتارهای مالی آنها از اهمیت خاصی برخوردار است. برآورد تعداد و هزینه تعهدات بلندمدت مستمری بگیران سازمان تأمین اجتماعی و چگونگی پایداری مالی آن با تغییر طرح پرداخت مستمری بازنشستگی‌های قانون تعیین تکلیف به مشارکت معین صوری از جمله اهداف این پژوهش می‌باشد. در این پژوهش مطابق با متدولوژی استرمن، تعاملات مولفه‌های مربوطه در چارچوب پویایی‌ شناسی ‌سیستم‌ها مورد بررسی قرار گرفته و با استفاده از داده‌های سال-های 1399-1395 سازمان فوق، نسبت به اعتبارسنجی مدل اقدام گردید. بر اساس یافته‌های این پژوهش با فرض تداوم شرایط موجود، تعداد بازنشستگان و بازماندگان آنها و به تبع آن هزینه‌های آتی سازمان افزایش قابل توجهی خواهند یافت. همچنین با تغییر طرح پرداخت مستمری در برقراری‌های قانون فوق به طرح مشارکت معین صوری، صرفه جویی بالغ بر 1982 هزار میلیارد ریال در 35 سال مورد مطالعه برای سازمان ایجاد خواهد شد(بر اساس حداقل دستمزد سال 1400). با توجه به نتایج بدست آمده، طرح جدید در تضمین پایداری مالی و برقرای عدالت بین نسلی موفق تر از طرح فعلی می‌باشد ولیکن با توجه به شرایط اقتصادی کشور(تورم هر ساله و پایین بودن نرخ اشتغال) برای سایر اساس‌های برقراری بازنشستگی پیشنهاد نمی‌گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparative analysis of financial stability of DB-PAYG and NDC plans in Social Security Organization's taieen taklif retirements by systems dynamics approach

نویسندگان [English]

  • zahra karimian sichani 1
  • mohamad hassan cheraghali, 2
  • ali dehghani, 3
1 PhD student, Department of Industrial Management, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Management, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Accounting, South Tehran Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Considering the important role of pension funds in creating economic, political, cultural security, etc., paying attention to their financial behavior has a particular importance. Estimating the number and cost of long-term obligations of pensioners of the social security organization and how it is financially sustainable by changing the pension payment scheme of the Taieen taklif law to formal definite participation is one of the objectives of this research. In this research, in accordance with Sterman's methodology, the interactions of the relevant components in the framework of systems dynamics were investigated, and the model was validated using the data of the above organization in 2016-2021. Based on the findings of this research, assuming the continuation of the existing conditions, the number of retirees and their survivors and, accordingly, the future costs of the organization will increase significantly. Also, by changing the pension payment plan in the implementation of the above law to the formal definite participation plan, savings amounted to 1982 thousand billion rials will be created for the organization in the 35 years studied (based on the minimum wage in 1400). According to the results, the new plan is more successful than the current plan in ensuring financial stability and intergenerational justice, but considering the country's economic conditions (annual inflation and low employment rate), it is not recommended for other types of retirement.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • System dynamics
  • Social Security Organization
  • Taieen taklif law
  • Notional Defined Contribution

مراجع

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پژوهش های نوین در تصمیم گیری
دوره 7، شماره 3
مهر 1401
صفحه 140-169

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