بررسی تاثیر عدم قطعیت طول زمان فعالیت ها بر زمان‌بندی پروژه با محدودیت منابع

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

استادیار، گروه مهندسی صنایع، دانشکده مهندسی مکانیک، دانشگاه صنعتی جندی شاپور، دزفول، ایران.

چکیده

زمانبندی پروژه با داده‌های قطعی سابقه طولانی در تحقیقات دارد. در این میان استفاده از اعداد غیرقطعی برای نمایش پارامترهای مسئله فقط محدود به تکنیکهای ‫PERT و برخی الگوریتمهای ابتکاری برای محاسبه زمان ختم پروژه می گردند که توانایی در نظر گرفتن همه ی انواع این حالت‌های عدم قطعیت را ندارند. در این تحقیق برای محاسبه مسیر بحرانی و میزان شناوری فعالیت‌های پروژه تحت شرایط عادی و تسریع پروژه مدل‌های برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی توسعه داده‌شده است. بررسی تجربی کارکرد این مدلها در حالت قطعی با نتایج حاصل از الگوریتم‌های شناخته‌شده برای محاسبه ی مسیر بحرانی پروژه همخوانی داشته و اعتبارسنجی شده‌اند؛ علاوه بر اینها یک الگوریتم برای تولید سناریوهای حدی بر اساس مقادیر بازه‌ای پارامترهای ورودی طراحی شد. الگوریتم توسعه داده‌شده قادر به تولید بازه بهینه برای مقادیر متغیرهای تصمیم در زمانبندی پروژه است. حل مسئله زمانبندی یک پروژه‌ی واقعی احداث ساختمان شامل بیش از ۸۰ فعالیت نشان داد در صورتیکه مقدار پارامترهای ورودی مسئله اعداد بازه‌ای باشند مقادیر متغیرهای تصمیم خروجی از مدل‌ها نیز در بیشتر اوقات اعداد بازه‌ای و با عدم قطعیت کمتری خواهند بود. انتشار خطا و ریسک در پروژه در اکثر اوقات به‌صورت خطی هست. این بدان معنا است در صورتی‌که برنامه‌ریزی بهینه‌ای برای زمان‌بندی پروژه صورت گیرد، در اکثر اوقات خطا و ریسک در پروژه باعث بروز رفتار قابل پیش‌بینی در متغیرهای تصمیم غیرقطعی خواهد شد.‬‬‬‬

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the effect of uncertainty of the activities’ duration on project makespan with constrained resources

نویسنده [English]

  • Mohamad A. Movafaghpour
Assistant Professor, Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Jundishapur University of Technology, Dezful, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Project scheduling with certain data has a long history of research. Meanwhile, the use of uncertain parameters is limited to PERT technique and some innovative algorithms for calculating project completion time, which are not capable of considering all types of uncertainties. In this research, we developed some mathematical models to calculate the critical path and the activities’ float under normal conditions and time-cost trade-off.; In addition to validity check of the models, we developed an algorithm to generate extreme scenarios based on the interval values of the input parameters. The developed algorithm is able to generate the optimal interval for the values of the decision variables in the project schedule. Solving the scheduling problem of a real construction project involving more than 80 activities showed that if the input parameters of the problem were interval numbers, the values of the output decision variables of the models would often be interval numbers with a less degree of uncertainty. The spread of uncertainty and risks in the project is often linear. This means that with an optimal plan for the project schedule, most of the estimated errors and risks in the project would cause predictable behavior in uncertain decision variables especially, activities’ float.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Scheduling
  • Uncertain Optimization
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Interval Linear Optimization
  • Interval Total Float
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