ارائه یک مدل ریاضی جهت تعیین سبکهای تصمیم گیری و ارتقای اثربخشی آن در شرایط وجود عدم قطعیت در داده ها

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری ،مدیریت صنعتی،دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی،تهران،ایران

2 استاد، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی،تهران،ایران

چکیده

DOR : 20.1001.1.24766291.1399.5.2.1.4
تصمیم گیری در دنیای واقعی مستلزم در نظر گرفتن شواهد و اطلاعات بدست آمده از منابع مختلفی است که در تصمیم گیری موثر است ،گاه این شواهد و اطلاعات در دسترس و دقیق بوده و گاه چنان پیچیده و مبهم است که منجر به ظهور سبکهای تصمیم گیری گوناگون می گردد. پژهش حاضر برآن است تا بااستفاده از قوانین احتمالات مبتنی بر میزان قطعیت داده ها و بر مبنای تئوری ریاضی شواهد دمپستر شافر الگویی برای تعیین سبک تصمیم گیری مدیران بالاخص در شرایط عدم قطعیت داده ها ارائه دهد.و درنهایت با کاهش عدم قطعیت در اخذ تصمیم منجربه ارتقای اثربخشی تصمیم گیری گردد. در این مدل ، تصمیم گیری برمبنای مولفه ای چهارگانه آن باتوجه به نظرخبرگان ، وبراساس الگوی تئوری شواهد مدلسازی ویک مدل غیرخطی ارائه شد. سپس پرسشنامه ای حاوی 18سوال در خصوص نوع مساله پیش رو جهت تصمیم گیری در مدیران شعب یکی از بانکهای خصوصی در سطح استان گیلان و بر مبنای طیف لیکرت ،توزیع گردید. داده های حاصله باالگوی ارائه شده مدلسازی و نتایج نهایی بدست آمد. نتایج نشان داد که در شرایط قطعیت داده ها رویکرد تحلیلی و عقلائی و در شرایط عدم قطعیت داده ها رویکردهای شهودی جهت تصمیم گیری مورد استفاده قرار می گیرند. به علاوه مدل یشنهادی ، راهکاری را جهت اخذ و ارتقای اثربخشی تصمیمات از طریق تجمیع نظرات خبرگان فراهم می آورد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Provide a mathematical model for determining decision-making styles and improving its effectiveness in the face of data uncertainty .

نویسندگان [English]

  • masome tadriss hasani 1
  • hosein rahmansersht 2
1 PhD Student, Industrial Management, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Decision making in the real world requires considering the evidence and information obtained from various sources that are effective in decision making, sometimes this evidence and information is available and accurate and sometimes so complex and ambiguous that it leads to the emergence of decision styles. There is a lot of confusion. The present study seeks to provide a model for determining managers' decision-making style, especially in the context of data uncertainty, by using probability laws based on data reliability and based on mathematical theory. Improve decision-making effectiveness In this model, the decision was made based on its quadruple component according to the opinion of the reporters, and based on the theoretical model of modeling evidence and nonlinear model. Then, a questionnaire containing 18 questions about the type of problem ahead was distributed for decision making in the managers of the branches of one of the private banks in Gilan province and based on the Likert spectrum. The obtained data were obtained by modeling the presented model and the final results. The results showed that in case of data certainty, analytical and rational approach and in case of data uncertainty, intuitive approaches are used for decision making. In addition, the proposed model provides a solution for obtaining and improving the effectiveness of decisions by consolidating the opinions of experts.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Evidence theory
  • mathematical modeling
  • decision making
  • intuitive decision making
[1]    Dadashi khas, Ismail, Babaei Novouli, Fahimeh,(2014) "A Study on the Effect of Intellectual Capital Management on Strategic Decision-Making among Managers in Industrial Towns Companies", Development and Development Management Quarterly, 17, 23.                                                                                                                                              
[2]    Shirvani, Alireza, Mardani, Zahra (2010),"The Study of Psychological Factors in Strategic Decision-Making by Senior Managers of the Private Sector Based on Yong Methodology (Investigated by the Public Sector Organizations of Isfahan Province"), Eighth International Management Conference.
 [3]   Farajzadeh, Siamak, Mohammadi, Reza, (2013),"Measurement-based method for identifying the failure of the relays", Master's thesis, Azad University of Shahid Madani, , pp. 52-53.
[4]    Oliveira, A,(2007)," a Discussion of Rational and Psychological Decision-Making Theories and Models: The Search for a Cultural-Ethical Decision-Making Model", Electronic Journal of Business Ethics and Organization Studies , 12 (2), pp 12-13.
[5]    Alwani, Mehdi,(2000) "Intuitive Decision-Making Features and Applications", Strategic Defense Studies, pp. 5 and 6, pp. 137-150..
 [6]   Mirsapasi, Nasser, (2009), "Theoretical Challenges of Strategic Decision Making", Scientific Journal of Educational Tadbir, 2009, 20, No. 211, p.24.
 [7]   TICHÁ, Ivana, HRON, Jan, FIEDLER,(2010)," Jiří, Managerial decision making – importance of intuition in the rational process", Agric. Econ. – Czech,56 (12),pp 553–557.
[8]    Rauf,Khailda,(2010) "Use of Intuition in Decision Making Among Managers in Banking and Industrial Sectors of Karachi" ,Pakistan Journal of Psychological Research,29(1), pp79-102.                                                                                                                                           
[9]    Erenda, Ivan, Mesko, Maja, Bukovec, Boris, (2014)"Intuitive decision-making and leadership competencies of managers in Slovenian automotive industry", Journal of Universal Excellence,3 (2), pp 87–101.
[10] Adiandari, Ade Maharini, Troena, Eka Afnan, Fatchan , Djumahir, H.A,  (2014)        " Intuitive Decision Making Practice and Its Role in Creating Bank Profit", European Journal of Business and Management, 6 (22). 
[11] Mirvahadi, Seyed Saeed, (2017), A Study of the Decision Making Logic of Iranian Entrepreneurs Based on the Theory of Possibility, Modern Researchs in Decision Making, Volume 2, Number 4, pp. 229-254.
[12] Taghiani, Alireza, Rajabzadeh, Ali, Anvari Rostami, Ali Asghar,(2016),Designing a Decision Making Model in Uncertainty, Modern Researchs in Decision Making, Volume 1, Number 1, pp. 190-216.
[13] Sinclair,Marta ,ashkanasy, Neal M, (2014)" Intuitive decision-making amongst leaders: More than just shooting from the hip, Preprint version. Later published as Intuitive decision-making amongst leaders: More than just shooting from the hip", Mt Eliza Business Review,5 (2), pp32-40.                                                                                                                             
[14] Bazazzadeh, Hamidreza,(2014), Decision Making of Managers Based on Non-Financial  Measures of Performance Measurement in Environmental Uncertainty, Management Research in Iran, Volume 18, Number 4, pp. 1-22
[15] Hamidi, Nasser, Akbari Shemiran, Reza, Shirdel, Gholam Hassan, Taleshi, Babak, (2012),Presenting a Multi-Criteria Fuzzy Hybrid Fuzzy Decision Model for Supplier Prioritization and Evaluation, Management Research in Iran, Volume 16, Number 3 , Pp. 59-81                                                     
 [16] Dane, erik, patt, Michael g,(2007)" exploring intuition and its role in managerial decision making", academy of management review, 32 (1), pp33–54.                                                  
[17] Ghorbani jajrom , Zahra, Malekzadeh, Gholamreza, Kharakian, Alireza,(2016) "Investigating the role of mediation of the rational and intuitive decision-making methods of managers on emotional intelligence and new behaviors", Journal of Organizational Behavioral Studies, Vol. 5, p. 2, p.84.
 [18] Heidari, Elham, Marzouqi, Rahmatullah,(2011) "Investigation and Comparison of General Methods of Decision-Making in Managers (Case Study of Shiraz University)", Journal of New Approach in Educational Management, (3),pp678484.
 [19] Hadizadeh Moghadam, Akram, Tehrani, Maryam, (2008), "Investigating the Relationship Between Public Styles of Managers Decision Making in Government Organizations", Journal of Public Administration, 2008(1) ,pp 133-138.                                
[20] Pasha, Einollah, Mostafaei, Hamid Reza, Mehran Khalaj, Mehran, Khalaj, Fereshteh,(2012) "Calculating Shankan Entropy Shapes of Uncertainty Based on Evidence Based Demping-Shafer's Theory", International Journal of Industrial Engineering and Manufacturing, pp. 216-223.                                                                                                                             
 [21]        Helton, J,C, (1997)," Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in the Presence of Stochastic and Subjective Uncertainty", J. Stat. Comput Simul, p 57.
 [22]        Huynh, V. N. (2009). Discounting and combination scheme in evidence theory      for dealing with conflict in information fusion. In Modeling Decisions for Artificial Intelligence ,pp. 217-230, Springer Berlin Heidelberg.                   
  [23]       Sentz, K. & Ferson, S. (2002). Combination of evidence in Dempster-Shafer theory (Vol. 4015). Albuquerque, NM: Sandia National Laboratories.                                                 
 [24] Zaman, K., Rangavajhala, S., McDonald, M.P., Mahadevan, S.A,(2011),   Probabilistic Approach for Representation of Interval Uncertainty", Reliability Engineering and System Safety , (96), pp 117–130.